Rabu, 30 Juli 2014

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Tessa's life has plummeted into chaos. Her father is missing, Goran is unconscious and showing no signs of healing, her mother has taken several steps off the deep end and David, well, she'll deal with him when she sees him - if she can find him. Cody isn't sure what happened to the supposedly successful conclusion to the blood farm madness but he's back in hell and damn it Tessa is once again leading the charge. Jared is on the run, again. With no one else he can trust, but Tessa's friends and family, he searches them out determined to help them solve this war - whether he is welcome or not. With everyone in distress or missing, Tessa struggles to find answers, and create some kind of order amongst the chaos - before their attackers strike again.

  • Sales Rank: #6786528 in Books
  • Published on: 2015-04-11
  • Original language: English
  • Dimensions: 6.75" h x .95" w x 4.25" l,
  • Binding: Paperback
  • 418 pages

About the Author
Freelance writer Dale Mayer lives in the beautiful Okanagan valley in British Columbia, Canada. She's multi-pubbed in nonfiction and is currently writing The Essential Series including The Career Essential Series(The Resume, The Cover Letter, The Interview), Lifestyle Essentials (Ergonomics for today's world, Raising the dyslexic child, etc.), and the Gardening Essential Series, (Beginning with Bulbs, Urban Farming, Gardening for Seeds, etc.). Stay tuned as she adds to these and several other proposed series. For the last decade, she's written on all of these topics either under her own name or as a ghostwriter. As a researcher and technical writer, Dale has a wealth of knowledge she can't wait to share! However, fiction is her passion. Here, she writes taut psychological suspense with romance and paranormal elements. She has recently branched out into writing both mystery and urban fantasy books for young adult with the occasional vampire book thrown in just for fun.

Most helpful customer reviews

0 of 0 people found the following review helpful.
Tessa meets Deanna
By Maryjane Omeara
Tessa meets Deanna and Hortran. What does she want from Tessa? She will learn soon. Another blood farm is found in the hospital, how will they save the people there? We watch in wonder as Tessa's relationship with Cody and her new found powers grow and Deanna leaves her with a gift. But can she handle the gift and what is does to her? With new found allies Goran and Serus try to cleanse the hospital, floor by floor. What will happen next? I can't wait to find out. I love this series.

0 of 0 people found the following review helpful.
Just great reading!!!
By christopher b medeiros
Dale is a great writer love her family blood ties, can't wait for the next release.

0 of 0 people found the following review helpful.
She keeps amazing him more and more with each minute he's with ...
By Jutzie
Vampire in Chaos by Dale Mayer
Family Blood Ties Series Book Seven
The saga of our heroes and heroines continue as they fight a war they never asked for, and yet, they are the only ones who can fight it. This story starts where the cliffhanger in the previous book, Vampire in Conflict, left off.

Somehow everyone keeps getting separated. Tessa and Cody are searching for Serus and David somewhere in the deepest depths under the vampire hospital. Not only do they meet two unusual beings...it seems the one has plans for Tessa, big plans. Whether Tessa agrees or not.

Cody just wants life to slow down so he can spend time alone with Tessa. She keeps amazing him more and more with each minute he's with her.

Their friends who have been drugged are slowly being found, like Ian and Jewel. Rhia has lost parts of her memories from the drugs and has no idea where she may have sent their son Seth.

Jared's trust list has grown very short. He's back at the home but not for long. With his family dead, his future is taking a turn he refuses to follow. And why won't anyone answer his texts?

As always, the author is the queen of cliffhangers. Vampire in Crisis will be the next book to continue the journey to find out who is heading the blood farms and how to shut them down. And Tessa's future...her head is exploding with possibilities.
**Language

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Rabu, 16 Juli 2014

[L577.Ebook] Free Ebook The Medium of Contingency: An Inverse View of the Market, by Elie Ayache

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The Medium of Contingency: An Inverse View of the Market, by Elie Ayache

In The Medium of Contingency Elie Ayache builds upon his ground-breaking book The Blank Swan, in exploring the intersection of philosophy and finance, introducing new notions of price and market. Inverting the received view, he now sees a creation of matter in both the market and its metaphysics, rather than pure speculation.

Once recognized as the proper medium of contingency and disassociated from the probabilistic and statistical tools traditionally used to model it, the market can be thought as 'real', in a new sense of reality corresponding to the new sense of matter. To bring this new and original perspective, The Medium of Contingency builds on probability theory as first formalized by von Mises and Kolmogorov, and later revisited by Shafer and Vovk. It utilises the author's extensive experience in derivatives pricing technology and software, as well as his work in the philosophy of contingency and contingent claims, to propose a new philosophical interpretation of Brownian motion and of the Black-Scholes-Merton formula. Then it completes the overturning of the traditional view of the market by arguing that there should be no difference, ultimately, between an underlying asset and the derivative written on it.

This book does not aim to change the market but the way we must think of it. It is the author's conviction that there can be no philosophy of the market, and consequently no thinking of it, without a philosophy of contingent claims and of derivative pricing. The book provides the missing piece, which the philosophy of probability cannot provide alone. Its scope, however, extends beyond the strict critique of financial mathematics, as it also, and perhaps most importantly, delivers the author's definitive treatment of the philosophically prominent and recently much discussed notion of contingency.

  • Sales Rank: #684972 in Books
  • Published on: 2015-11-27
  • Released on: 2015-11-27
  • Original language: English
  • Number of items: 1
  • Dimensions: 9.96" h x 1.15" w x 7.75" l, 2.30 pounds
  • Binding: Hardcover
  • 414 pages

Review

'Elie Ayache sticks a long sharp and elegant philosophical knife deep into the heart of the currently fashionable statistical and probabilistic approach to finance and life.'

Emanuel Derman, Professor of Finance, Columbia University. Author of My Life as a Quant (Wiley, 2007) and Models. Behaving. Badly: Why Confusing Illusion with Reality Can Lead to Disaster, on Wall Street and in Life (Free Press, 2012)

'This major new book builds on Elie Ayache's previous book, The Blank Swan. It offers a radical critique of the idea that contemporary derivative trading is based on statistical reasoning and probabilistic models. In making this case, Ayache offers a radical philosophical view of the market as just one instance of the radical nature of contingency in social life. This remarkable book will appeal to philosophers, social scientists and finance specialists equally.'

Arjun Appadurai, Goddard Professor of Media, Culture and Communication, New York University. Author of Banking on Words: The Failure of Language in the Age of Derivative Finance (University of Chicago Press, 2015)

'Elie Ayache is a unique philosopher of probability and finance. For decades, he has worked at the ground floor of the world's derivatives markets, providing traders with the technology they need to create prices that financial theorists imagine emerging from some mysterious probabilistic process. And for decades he has sought the words that might help us all understand how the market creates both its realities and its illusions.

In The Blank Swan, published in 2010, Ayache deconstructed the conception of the market as a stochastic process, explaining how its prices emerge not from probability but from contingency itself. Spectacular breakdowns can occur, he leads us to understand, not because the market gets the prices wrong (underestimating, say, the probability of a black swan) but because there are no prices save those the market creates. In this new and persuasive book, he returns to the fray with an analysis that aims higher and goes deeper. There is indeed a stochastic structure in the market, he now tells us, but this structure is not an underlying reality that drives the market. It itself is a creation of the market.

This book delivers important and rewarding lessons for those who study probability, those who use it, and those who rely on it to understand our economic and financial world.'

Glenn Shafer, Board of Governors Professor at the Rutgers Business School Newark and New Brunswick. Co-author (with Vladimir Vovk) of Probability and Finance: It's Only a Game! (Wiley, 2001)

'The market has largely been, despite its overwhelming importance, one of modern philosophy's unknown continents. Elie Ayache's forceful new work The Medium of Contingency is thus at once a provocation, an invitation, and an essential resource. It gives to philosophy all it needs to begin grappling with the pre-eminent reality of the market, and thus to do its duty.'

Jon Roffe,Vice-Chancellor's Postdoctoral Fellow, Philosophy, University of New South Wales. Author of Abstract Market Theory (Palgrave, 2015)

From the Back Cover

In The Medium of Contingency Elie Ayache builds upon his ground-breaking book The Blank Swan, in exploring the intersection of philosophy and finance, introducing new notions of price and market. Inverting the received view, he now sees a creation of matter in both the market and its metaphysics, rather than pure speculation.

Once recognized as the proper medium of contingency and disassociated from the probabilistic and statistical tools traditionally used to model it, the market can be thought as 'real', in a new sense of reality corresponding to the new sense of matter. To bring this new and original perspective, The Medium of Contingency builds on probability theory as first formalized by von Mises and Kolmogorov, and later revisited by Shafer and Vovk. It utilises the author's extensive experience in derivatives pricing technology and software, as well as his work in the philosophy of contingency and contingent claims, to propose a new philosophical interpretation of Brownian motion and of the Black-Scholes-Merton formula. Then it completes the overturning of the traditional view of the market by arguing that there should be no difference, ultimately, between an underlying asset and the derivative written on it.


This book does not aim to change the market but the way we must think of it. It is the author's conviction that there can be no philosophy of the market, and consequently no thinking of it, without a philosophy of contingent claims and of derivative pricing. The book provides the missing piece, which the philosophy of probability cannot provide alone. Its scope, however, extends beyond the strict critique of financial mathematics, as it also, and perhaps most importantly, delivers the author's definitive treatment of the philosophically prominent and recently much discussed notion of contingency.

 

About the Author
ELIE AYACHE was born in Lebanon in 1966. Trained as an engineer at l'École Polytechnique of Paris, he pursued a career of option market-maker on the floor of MATIF (1987-1990) and LIFFE (1990-1995). He then turned to the philosophy of probability (DEA at la Sorbonne) and to derivative pricing and co-founded ITO 33, a financial software company, in 1999. Today, ITO 33 is the leading specialist in the pricing of convertible bonds, in the equity-to-credit problem, and more generally, in the calibration and recalibration of volatility surfaces. Elie has published many articles on the philosophy of contingent claims, as well as The Blank Swan: The End of Probability.

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0 of 0 people found the following review helpful.
we love you ayache
By rationality
we love you ayache, don't stop writing. - love Sanguine Empiricist on twitter(haven't read the book yet, intend to read it, just wanted to leave some words of encouragement)

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Senin, 07 Juli 2014

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The conflict that ended in 1945 is often described as a 'total war', unprecedented in both scale and character. Volume 3 of The Cambridge History of the Second World War adopts a transnational approach to offer a comprehensive and global analysis of the war as an economic, social and cultural event. Across twenty-eight chapters and four key parts, the volume addresses complex themes such as the political economy of industrial war, the social practices of war, the moral economy of war and peace and the repercussions of catastrophic destruction. A team of nearly thirty leading historians together show how entire nations mobilized their economies and populations in the face of unimaginable violence, and how they dealt with the subsequent losses that followed. The volume concludes by considering the lasting impact of the conflict and the memory of war across different cultures of commemoration.

  • Sales Rank: #1937634 in Books
  • Published on: 2015-06-15
  • Original language: English
  • Number of items: 1
  • Dimensions: 8.98" h x 1.69" w x 5.98" l, .0 pounds
  • Binding: Hardcover
  • 864 pages

About the Author
Michael Geyer is Samuel N. Harper Professor of German and European History in the Department of History at the University of Chicago. His recent publications include the edited volume Beyond Totalitarianism: Stalinism and Nazism Compared.

Adam Tooze is Professor of Modern German History at Yale University. His published works include Wages of Destruction: The Making and Breaking of the Nazi Economy, and The Deluge: The Great War and the Remaking of Global Order, 1916-1931.

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0 of 0 people found the following review helpful.
Very instructive and I've read over two hundred books on ...
By Tony Meyer
Very instructive and I've read over two hundred books on WWII.

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Jumat, 20 Juni 2014

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Trying to escape marriage,
they are snared by love.

When Sam Sinclair's self-made millionaire grandfather sends Willa Kent, a woman none of the three Sinclair brothers have even heard of, as his proxy to an ultra-important meeting of the Sinclair shipping company, most people would think the old man had lost his marbles. But Sam knows his grandfather too well. For some reason, the wily old man has decided that one of his three grandsons should marry Willa, and this is his way of trying to force the issue....

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But Willa isn't about to let Sam fly away with her heart until she knows his true motives. If the man wants to marry for money, then the woman in her says that first he must fall in love.

  • Sales Rank: #85906 in eBooks
  • Published on: 2008-10-25
  • Released on: 2008-10-28
  • Format: Kindle eBook

Review
"Janet Chapman melds great characterization, sparkling humor, and spicy adventure into a perfect blend." -- Romantic Times

About the Author
A native of rural central Maine, Janet Chapman lives there in a cozy log cabin on a lake with her husband.  Three cats and a stray young bull moose keep them company.  The author of the hugely popular Highlander time-travel series, she also writes contemporary romances.

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8 of 8 people found the following review helpful.
Ok story but almost too sweet. Rich handsome guy falls for dowdy, accident-prone small town girl.
By Jane
STORY BRIEF:
Abram built a shipping empire. He is dying and went to a small coastal town in Maine to spend his last days. He met Willa who owns a casket making company. He wants Willa to marry one of his grandsons, for her benefit and for their benefit. His three grandsons lost their parents at an early age and were raised by Abram. The three grandsons are confirmed bachelors. Abram retired and gave Willa his proxy to vote to choose one of them as his successor. Willa traveled to and attended the board meeting in New York City as a favor to Abram. For some reason, Sam (one of the grandsons) is nearby to see and help her survive accidents such as getting her purse caught in the elevator door, getting locked out of her hotel room, etc. Willa is suffering guilt over some things in her life. She doesn't live a normal life due to guilt, and she's a bit whiny.

REVIEWER'S OPINION:
This was a pleasant romance novel, but there was nothing new or different enough to make it stand out from the rest. I think Sam fell in love with Willa too soon and too easily. He dated a number of women over the years for no more than a few months each. I didn't understand how he "fell in love at first sight" with a dowdy, unsophisticated, accident prone woman. I would have preferred watching things happen between them for awhile before he fell in love.

Minor irritation (publisher's fault): Sam has hair on his chest. The guy on the cover does not.

DATA:
Story length: 340 pages. Swearing language: moderate to strong. Sexual language: mild. Number of sex scenes: 2. Total number of sex scene pages: 9. Setting: current day New York City, Keelstone Cove, Maine, and sailing in the Atlantic. Copyright: 2008. Genre: contemporary romance.

0 of 0 people found the following review helpful.
Love it
By Kindle Customer
A very nicely written story that pulls you in and keeps you there. Looking forward to downloading the next book.

0 of 0 people found the following review helpful.
The Man Must Marry
By Amazon Customer
I really enjoy all of Janet Chapmans work. Her characters are delightful and very human.

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Minggu, 15 Juni 2014

[H108.Ebook] Get Free Ebook Taken, Not Spurred (Lone Star Burn Book 1), by Ruth Cardello

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Taken, Not Spurred (Lone Star Burn Book 1), by Ruth Cardello

From New York Times and USA Today bestselling author Ruth Cardello comes the scorching debut to the Lone Star Burn series—hot enough to make you want to saddle up to your own cowboy!

Would-be writer Sarah Dery has just turned twenty-five and feels like her life is on hold. She’s done squat with her English degree and is just killing time working for her parents. So, when the opportunity to spend the summer working on a ranch in Texas comes her way, she jumps at the chance—figuring it might be just the jolt she needs to get her creative juices flowing.

Tony Carlton is a chiseled, handsome, and reclusive horse trainer with a tortured past and an eye for trouble, this time in the form of a naked blonde stranger he finds in his shower.

The wrong turn that led Sarah into the bed of this sexy, brooding cowboy turns out to be just what she needed to find her steamy inner voice, but will their connection be enough to break down Tony’s defenses?

  • Sales Rank: #6224 in eBooks
  • Published on: 2014-09-23
  • Released on: 2014-09-23
  • Format: Kindle eBook

About the Author

Ruth Cardello was born the youngest of eleven children in a small city in northern Rhode Island. She lived in Boston, Paris, Orlando, and New York before coming full circle and moving back to Rhode Island, where she lives with her husband and three children. Before turning her attention to writing, Ruth was an educator for twenty years, eleven of which she spent as a kindergarten teacher. She is the author of seven previous novels including Bedding the Billionaire, which was a New York Times and USA Today bestseller. Taken, Not Spurred is the debut book in the Lone Star Burn series.

Most helpful customer reviews

36 of 37 people found the following review helpful.
What can be better than a HOT, broody cowboy?
By sgalley
4.5 Stars
I REALLY liked this book! Broody is not a strong enough word to describe Tony Carlton. He has a horse ranch in Fort Mavis, Texas and is a veritable recluse…a VERY grumpy one. People in town steer clear of him, and his own employees are not allowed to talk to him. He trains horses. That’s it. He has women on occasion, but only once, and with no expectations. He makes that clear. He does not care. He never will. Don’t expect it.

Enter Sarah Dery. She has driven from Rhode Island with her horse in tow to spend the summer on her friend Lucy’s cattle ranch. She wants to get away from home and try her hand at writing a romance novel. It’s her dream. She HAS to give it a go. The only problem is that she doesn’t have a lot of experience in that area. She’s had a very vanilla relationship with one guy.

Sarah arrives at her destination and no one is there to greet her. That’s OK. She’s hot and sticky (this Texas heat is hotter than she expected), so they won’t mind if she takes a shower while she waits for them to come home. Problem? SHE IS AT THE WRONG RANCH! When broody, grumpy Tony comes in to take a shower and get something to eat he finds a cute naked blonde dancing and singing in his shower. That’s interesting…

I have to say that I think Sarah Dery is my favorite book heroine ever. Her inner dialogue is hilarious! I laughed out loud several times while reading this book. Ruth Cardello’s personality must shine through in this character. “Not only do Texans speak slowly, they also apparently talk in code.” I loved that line! It is SO true! You wonder how anyone could NOT fall for her; but Tony, though attracted by her physical attributes, seems to be immune.

Both protagonists in this story have tortured pasts. Sarah is trying to deal with hers. Tony doesn’t feel he deserves to live, much less enjoy life. While wallowing in his past, he makes everyone he encounters, miserable. He does support a lot of people with his ranch though, so they tolerate what they have to – and most everyone respects him and his reputation as a horse trainer extraordinaire.

This is a very well-written book whose main characters have very real and believable independent struggles coupled with the struggles of new love. The author does not rely on outlandish against-all-odds circumstances. She creates compelling primary and supporting characters who all develop and grow both individually and together.In contrast, she invites the reader along for a very fulfilling and inspirational journey.This approach adds to the story's charm.

I highly recommend! I hated to leave these characters. I would love to catch up with them in the future.

*An advance reading copy was generously provided by the publisher and NetGalley in exchange for an honest review.

32 of 33 people found the following review helpful.
Hot Hot Hot! Did I say Hot!
By D Yochum-Just The Write Stuff
I had purchased this book in December and it was sitting in a stack of books I wanted to read. I picked it up out of the pile and started reading and never put it down. Ms Cordello's writing grabbed me and never let go! When I write a review I try not to give any spoiler's but hope that I say enough that you will want to read this book! The heroine wants to be a writer leaves the family's business and sets out for a friend's ranch in Texas. She gets lost and ends up at the wrong ranch. Confronted by an angry cowboy this is where you know the story is going to pull you in! It's an emotional journey for the Hero and Heroine of this book, the sex is HOT and so is the plot! Buy this book, you don't want to miss this story! I sure hope there is a 2nd book in this series I'll be there to buy it!

41 of 44 people found the following review helpful.
What a great start to another heart warming series.
By CINDY F.
Kudo's to Ruth Cardello for giving us all another great book to read. This book kept me up half the night, because I just couldn't put it down. After reading this; I want a big brooding cowboy of my own. Tony might have been fighting his demon's for years who chases everyone away, but he's never come across someone who could pull him out of that funk....until he runs into the feisty Sarah. She sure put him in his place, and the funniest part? She did it in a way that he didn't even know it was happening, until it was too late.

Another thing I loved about this story, was the story within the story. That was very clever Ruthie. I laughed, cried, and cheered them on. I'm totally hooked now, and can't wait for the next book. I hope the next story is about Melanie. I would love to know what's happened in her life that makes her act the way she does. Actually; there was a lot of secondary characters in this book that really intrigued me.

Would I recommend this book? Heck yeah, in a heart beat!

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Sabtu, 07 Juni 2014

[C641.Ebook] Free Ebook Flashpoints: The Emerging Crisis in Europe, by George Friedman

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Flashpoints: The Emerging Crisis in Europe, by George Friedman

New York Times bestselling author and geopolitical forecaster George Friedman delivers a fascinating portrait of modern-day Europe, with special focus on significant political, cultural, and geographical flashpoints where the conflicts of the past are smoldering once again.

For the past five hundred years, Europe has been the nexus of global culture and power. But throughout most of that history, most European countries have also been volatile and unstable—some even ground zero for catastrophic wars. As Friedman explores the continent’s history region by region, he examines the centuries-long struggles for power and territory among the empires of Spain, Britain, Germany, and Russia that have led to present-day crises: economic instability in Greece; breakaway states threatening the status quo in Spain, Belgium, and the United Kingdom; and a rising tide of migrants disrupting social order in many EU countries. Readers will gain a new understanding of the current and historical forces at work—and a new appreciation of how valuable and fragile peace can be.

  • Sales Rank: #37263 in Books
  • Published on: 2016-02-16
  • Released on: 2016-02-16
  • Original language: English
  • Number of items: 1
  • Dimensions: 8.00" h x .90" w x 5.20" l, .62 pounds
  • Binding: Paperback
  • 288 pages

Review
“There is a temptation, when you are around George Friedman, to treat him like a Magic 8-Ball.” —The New York Times Magazine

“In Flashpoints, Friedman combines analysis with prophecy. . . . Some personal biography woven into poignant narratives helps reveal how geography and history have always shaped Europe’s future.” —Winnipeg Free Press

“One of the country’s leading strategic affairs experts.” —Lou Dobbs

“Considering how right [Friedman’s] been over the years, he’s worth listening to.” —San Antonio Express-News

“Insightful. . . . Friedman vividly describes a region where memories are long, perceived vulnerabilities are everywhere, and major threats have emerged rapidly and unexpectedly many times before.” —Publishers Weekly

About the Author
GEORGE FRIEDMAN is founder and chairman of Geopolitical Futures, which specializes in geopolitical forecasting. Prior to this Friedman was chairman of the global intelligence company Stratfor, which he founded in 1996. Friedman is the author of six books, including the New York Times bestsellers The Next Decade and The Next 100 Years. He lives in Austin, Texas.

Excerpt. © Reprinted by permission. All rights reserved.
1

A European Life

On the night of August 13, 1949, my family climbed into a rubber raft along the Hungarian shore of the Danube. The ultimate destination of the journey was Vienna. We were escaping the communists. There were four of us: my father, Emil, thirty-­seven, my mother, Friderika, known as Dusi, thirty-­five, my sister Agnes, eleven, and me, age six months. There was also a smuggler, whose name and provenance have been lost to us, deliberately, I think, as our parents regarded the truth of such things as potentially deadly and protected us from it at all costs.

We had come from Budapest by train to the Hungarian village of Almasfuzito, on the Danube northwest of the capital. Budapest, where my sister and I were born. My parents had migrated there with their families, met, fallen in love, and then were sucked into the abyss of Europe in the first half of the twentieth century. My mother was born in 1914 in a town near Bratislava, then called Pozsony and part of Hungary, which was then part of the Austro-­Hungarian Empire. My father was born in the town of Nyirbator in eastern Hungary in 1912.

They were born just before World War I. In 1918, the war ended and the structure of Europe cracked, wrecked by that war. Four imperial houses—­the Ottomans, Hapsburgs, Hohenzollerns, and Romanovs—­fell, and everything that had been solid between the Baltic Sea and Black Sea was in flux. Wars, revolutions, and diplomacy redrew the map of the region, inventing some countries and suppressing others. Munkács, the town my father’s father came from, was now in Ukraine, part of the Soviet Union. Pozsony was now called Bratislava, a city now part of a newly invented country fusing the Czechs and Slovaks.

My parents were Jews and for them the movement of borders was like the coming of weather. Pleasant or unpleasant, it was to be expected. There was something interesting about Hungarian Jews: they spoke Hungarian. The rest of the Jews in the east of Europe spoke Yiddish, fusing German with several other languages. Yiddish used the Hebrew alphabet, to further confuse matters. Yiddish-­speaking Jews did not tend to see themselves as part of the countries in which they lived, and their hosts generally agreed, usually emphatically. Geography was a convenience, not something that defined them. Using Yiddish as their primary tongue represented their tenuous connection to their society, something that was both resented and encouraged by those with whom they lived.

But generally speaking, Hungarian Jews used Hungarian as their only language. It was my sister’s and my first language. Some, such as my father, knew Yiddish as a second language, but my mother didn’t know Yiddish at all. Their mother tongue was Hungarian, and when the borders shifted, my mother’s family, all twelve of them supported by her father, who was a tailor, moved south to Budapest. In the same period the rest of my father’s family moved west, out of what had become Ukraine, and into what was left of Hungary after the war. The point is that while the normal anti-­Semitism of Europe flourished in Hungary as well, there was nonetheless a more intimate connection between Hungary and its Jews, far from simple or easy, but still there.

Hungary in the interwar period was not an unpleasant place—­once the chaos of a communist regime followed by an anticommunist regime was completed to the usual European accompaniment of slaughter. Independent for the first time in centuries, it was governed by an admiral of a navy that no longer existed, who was regent to a nonexistent king. Miklós Horthy should have had as his family motto “Go with the Flow.” The flow in Hungary in the 1920s and part of the 1930s was liberal, but not immoderately. This meant that my father, a country boy from the east, could move to Budapest, learn the printing trade, and open a print shop by the time he was twenty years old. For this time and place that was extraordinary, but it was an extraordinary time. Deep into the 1930s it was possible to believe that World War I had so chastened Europe that its darker instincts had been purged.

But demons are not so easy to purge. World War I had settled nothing. The war was fought over the status of Germany, which ever since its unification in 1871 had thrown the balance and stability of Europe into chaos. A powerful and wealthy nation had been created, but it was also a desperately insecure nation. Caught between France and Russia, with Britain subtly manipulating all players, Germany knew it could never survive a simultaneous attack from both sides. Germany also knew that both France and Russia were sufficiently afraid of it that a simultaneous attack could not be discounted. Thus, Germany’s strategy had to be to defeat first one and then mass its forces to defeat the other. In 1914 Germany had tried to implement this strategy but instead had lost.

My grandfather fought in World War I, a soldier in the Austro-­Hungarian army. He fought on the Russian front, leaving my father at the age of two. He returned from the war, but like so many others, he returned broken in spirit and body. Those whom the war didn’t kill, it twisted into men utterly unlike those who had left home. He died shortly after coming home, possibly of tuberculosis.

Rather than settling Germany’s status, World War I simply coupled geopolitical fear with ideological rage. Germany’s defeat was explained as being a result of treachery. And if there was treachery, then someone had been treacherous. It was a complex plot, but Germany settled on the Jews as the malevolent conspirators, a decision that had particular implications for my family.

Geopolitically, Hitler’s desire to secure German interests meant that the “flow” Horthy now had to “go with” came from Berlin. Ideologically, my parents now found themselves the major threat to the German nation. For a Jew living in Hungary it had not been a bad deal to this point. But it was now becoming a terrible one. This left my parents with a choice that had been facing Europeans for over a century—­staying or going to America. My mother’s sister lived in New York. I never knew how they did it, but somehow my parents managed to obtain visas to the United States in 1938. A visa like this was worth more than gold. For those who could see what was coming, it was life itself.

My father was a clever man, but he did not see what was coming. He had grown up with anti-­Semites, and he knew the beatings and abuse that involved. By 1938 he had a profitable printing business in Budapest. To give that up and start over in a country whose language he could not speak was not something he was eager to do. The geopolitical reality demanded that he find an exit from the European madhouse. His personal needs dictated that he stay and tough it out. By the time it became clear that this was not your daddy’s anti-­Semitism, it was too late.

The result for my family was catastrophic. In Hungary, Horthy protected the nation by submitting to the German will. Hungary remained internally free so long as it cooperated with German adventures. Having defeated France in a six-­week campaign, Germany now turned its attention to the Soviet Union, confidently expecting a rapid victory. Horthy, going with the flow, committed Hungary’s army to the war, expecting as a reward to have returned to it the regions my family had to flee after World War I. But for the reward to be permanent, there had to be blood. Horthy understood this.

My father was conscripted into the Hungarian army. At first he was simply a soldier. But if the Hungarians were to fight alongside Germans, it was clear that Jews could not simply be soldiers. My father was transferred with other Jews to labor battalions whose assignment was, for example, to clear minefields the old-fashioned way, by walking through them. All soldiers were expected to be willing to die. Those in the labor battalions were expected to die. Horthy was no more of an anti-­Semite than good manners required, and this was not something he may have wanted himself, but his duty was to preserve an independent Hungary, and if putting Jews into labor battalions was what was needed, he was going to do what was needed.

For my father and many of the men in my family, that meant a march from Hungary’s eastern border through the Carpathians, toward Kursk and Kiev, all the way to the River Don, to a place called Voronezh. Most of the men in my family were dead by then, but so were many regular army troops. The Soviet Union only seemed weak. Its strength was discovered in the fall of 1942, when the Soviets, having massed enormous forces east of the Don, counterattacked against the German Sixth Army, which had taken most of the city of Stalingrad. Germany’s goal was to choke off the approaches to the Caucasus, because on the other side of the Caucasus was the city of Baku, where the Swedish Nobel brothers had discovered and exploited a massive pool of oil in the late nineteenth century. Baku was still the source of most of the Soviets’ oil, and Hitler wanted desperately to take it from them. The Germans knew that if they took Stalingrad and the land between the Don and Volga Rivers, Baku was theirs and the war was over.

However, the Soviets did not counterattack in Stalingrad. Instead they attacked to the north and to the south, enveloping the German Sixth Army and starving it into surrender and annihilation. My father’s problem was that the Soviets’ northern thrust was aimed directly at him—­they knew that Germany’s allies were the weak link. By the winter of 1942 the Germans depended on Italian, Romanian, Hungarian, and other allies who did not want to die for Hitler’s historical vision of a Greater Germany. Therefore, when the Soviets launched their attack with massive barrages, the Hungarians broke ranks willingly. My father told me of the feared “Stalin Organ,” a multiple-­launch rocket system that could launch a dozen rockets from a battery, all landing within seconds of each other. Those rockets haunted his dreams for the rest of his life.

Then began the long retreat of the Hungarians from Voronezh to Budapest, a distance of over a thousand miles through the Russian winter of 1942–­43. The death toll was appalling, but the Jewish death toll was almost total. My father walked back through the snows without winter clothing, without food beyond what he could scavenge, and with the knowledge that encountering German SS troops to the rear meant certain death. He explained his survival in three ways. First, he imagined his daughter, my sister, a few meters ahead of him. He was always going to pick her up. Second, city boys were soft. He was a farm boy, hardened from birth. Finally, it was luck. Enormous luck.

Hitler needed Baku. If he was to defeat the Soviets, Baku was a geopolitical necessity. It was no accident that the Germans had to take Sta­lingrad and no accident that the Soviets couldn’t let them. It was not accidental that Germany’s allies were on the flanks and not in the center, nor was it accidental that the Soviet offensive focused on them. It was not accidental that my father was at ground zero, because wherever the Hungarians were was to be ground zero, and wherever the Hungarians were, the Jews would be the most exposed. What was accidental was that my father survived. Impersonal forces define the larger pieces of history. It is the small things, the precious things, that are defined by will, character, and mere chance.

When my father finally reached his home in Budapest in 1943, Hungary still retained its sovereignty from Germany. Sovereignty matters. It meant that while Hungarian foreign policy was shaped by the power of Germany, there was some space, small and decreasing, for Hungary to govern itself. For the Jews it meant that while conditions were extraordinarily difficult, more difficult than for other Hungarians, who also were facing deep problems, they were not confronted by the full fury of Germany’s anti-­Semitism. My mother and sister were alive, and even the print shop still functioned in a way. They had a place to live and food to eat. Horthy was able to preserve that. Perhaps he could have done more, but perhaps trying would have brought the full fury of the Nazis to bear much earlier than occurred. In Europe at this time, retaining a space for Jews to survive, however precariously, was no small achievement for Horthy, or a trivial matter for my family. It was very different living in a sovereign Hungary than in occupied Poland. The sovereign nation-­state could and did make the difference between life and death. I judge a man like Horthy not by the good he might have done, but by the evil that he did not commit and others did. It could have been much worse in Hungary, and much earlier. Others have judged him more harshly, my father and mother much less so. The argument still rages, but what is clear is that at the time, what he did was a matter of life and death. He, like the rest, was caught in the grip of European history gone mad, with few choices, all bad.

This was apparent when, in 1944, following his policy of going with the flow, Horthy opened secret negotiations with the Soviets over switching sides in a war that Germany was going to lose. German intelligence detected this, and Hitler summoned him to a meeting, where he threatened to occupy Hungary and demanded the deportation of Hungary’s Jews, nearly a million. Horthy conceded the deportation of 100,000. In Europe at that time, this was what humanitarianism had degenerated into. A man who collaborated in killing only 100,000 but kept perhaps 800,000 others alive a bit longer was doing the best that could have been expected of him. In due course the Germans took Hungary over, and even that little was impossible. The flow of history that Horthy went with had overwhelmed Hungary. The truth was that Horthy was finished, that the fate of Hungary would now be determined by Hitler and the Hungarian fascists, and my family, along with Horthy, had run out of time.

Adolf Eichmann was sent to Hungary to oversee the “final solution” in the largest still-existing community of Jews in Europe. In the midst of a desperate war that Germany was losing, scarce manpower and transport facilities were diverted to move hundreds of thousands of Hungarian Jews north to Auschwitz and other camps, to be exterminated.

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12 of 13 people found the following review helpful.
LOTS OF USEFUL INFORMATION
By The Curmudgeon
Friedman is great at summarizing important points. I have read historical books two or three times as long which provide less information, filled with countless details which are forgotten as soon as read. Friedman comes from a Hungarian Jewish family and he first explains the history of his family in Europe. As he states, being Jewish was the family's main identity and being in Hungary was just a geographical accident.

He then begins the history of modern (post-medieval) Europe which started in the 1400s. At that time Islamic civilization abutted Europe, controlling much of Africa, western and central Asia, and parts of the Pacific. Europe's main demand then was for black pepper from India, and Prince Henry of Portugal (aka the Navigator) began the process of oceanic voyages around Africa to bypass the Islamic center and get spices directly from India. In 1498 Vasco da Gama made it around Africa to India. Meanwhile Spain had entered the race and in 1492 had Columbus sail west and discover what he thought were the outskirts of India. This led to Spain becoming the first world power, followed by other European world powers, with the last European world power the Soviet Union ceasing to exist on the first day of 1992, exactly 500 years after Columbus's discovery.

Three men jolted Europe out of its medieval self-centered isolation and began the modern world. These are the previously mentioned Columbus in 1492 (Europe is not the center of the world), Martin Luther in 1517 (Rome is not the center of Europe), and Copernicus in 1543 (Earth is not the center of the universe). Especially important was Luther's belief that individual Christians can interpret the Bible for themselves, thereby launching modern individualism.

This led to the scientific revolution as formulated by Francis Bacon (born 1561) where knowledge is based on observation and experimentation (not ancient authority). But back then it was necessary to say that science would be used to understand the world God had created. All this led to the Enlightenment of the 17th and 18th centuries where reason would overcome superstition, merit would overcome aristocratic privilege, and the meritorious would govern through a republic. Meanwhile Europe had fragmented into different nations, originally influenced by Luther's system of printing the Bible in local European languages (not Latin). Modern Europe became governed by science and nationalism.

In 1914 life was good in Europe. There was peace and prosperity as well as technological and artistic innovation. European empires controlled most of the world. The last major war was a century ago in 1815 with the final defeat of Napoleon. Europeans were optimistic. Then World War I suddenly broke out and much of the old order collapsed. Europe was devastated, especially Germany and Russia. Two new ideologies then developed in these countries led by two ruthless men. Stalin wanted to create a new society based on communist theory, kill or arrest any opponents, and end up with a worker's paradise. Hitler wanted to strengthen Germany by colonizing parts of Europe, ridding it of subversive elements like Jews, and end up with a thousand-year German Reich (empire). World War II ensued which further devastated Europe. In the 31 years between 1914 and 1945 about 100 million were killed. Europe ended up being occupied by American and Russian forces.

Friedman states that Americans "pitied" Europeans and were generous with help. Russians "envied" Europeans and stole from them, shipping whole factories back to the Soviet Union. They came from a place where watches and indoor plumbing were luxuries. (When I visited the Soviet Union in 1984 toilet paper was a luxury - they used newspaper which showed Pravda had some use after all). Europeans were suffering from what is today called post-traumatic stress disorder. But back then people were expected to recover by themselves.

While occupied eastern Europe became part of a new Russian Empire, western Europe pursued unification to prevent another war. The main idea was to unify Germany and France (enemies since 1871) plus the other countries. This resulted in Franco-German economic unification with the European Coal and Steel Community (1951) and the Treaty of Rome and the European Community (1957) which also contained Italy and Spain as well as smaller countries. Meanwhile Britain tried to maintain its independence by creating the European Free Trade Association which included countries like Sweden and Switzerland. Britain eventually joined the European Community in 1973 and the EFTA faded away. Further unification came in 1991 with the Maastricht Treaty and the European Union (now 28 countries). The main theme in Europe today is that it is a place of peace and prosperity that has made war obsolete.

But cracks began appearing in this scenario. At first wars erupted in the 1990s in tense areas such as the Balkans and the Caucasus. Meanwhile Russia had recovered from the collapse of the Soviet Union and began attempts to re-establish its empire in 2008. This happened in Georgia where two northern provinces broke away from the country with the help of Russian troops. Contrast this with four years earlier when the Orange Revolution in Ukraine ousted a pro-Russian government which had won with a rigged election. By 2014 Russia felt powerful enough to invade and incorporate the Ukrainian province of Crimea. It is true that Crimea had historically been a part of Russia until Khrushchev gave it to Ukraine in 1954 (since it was attached to Ukraine but across the sea from Russia), but in 1994 Russia signed an international agreement to guarantee the borders of Ukraine in exchange for Ukraine abandoning its nuclear weapons (the biggest mistake it ever made).

There were also economic problems caused by the worldwide Great Recession of 2008. Prosperous countries like Germany weathered the storm but poorer countries like Greece sank further into bankruptcy. Germany is a country which produces more than it consumes and is a major exporter. Greece is a country which consumes more than it produces and is a major importer. The tension there is that Germany does not want to be the welfare department for southern Europe while countries like Greece want more welfare (foreign aid or "loans" expected to be forgiven).

Friedman cites various flashpoints which are too numerous to mention here. There is always Germany which is generating resistance by trying to impose economic discipline on resistant poor southern European countries and mafia-style eastern European countries. Russia has had its borders pushed back to before Peter the Great, with the Baltic states, Belarus, and Ukraine now independent. Putin wants them back.

Towards the end of the book Friedman finally addresses the biggest problem facing western Europe, which is the Muslim invasion (Russia is eastern Europe's biggest problem and the current battleground is Ukraine). Western Europe has been operating under the myth that due to its official policy of tolerance it has made war archaic and can accommodate millions of Muslims. The reality is that Muslims are there to benefit economically and despise tolerance as well as its proponents. They are more interested in imposing their culture on a culturally weak western Europe.

European elites sponsored this invasion to gain cheap labor to benefit themselves as the main investors. They then imposed this policy on the rest as a manifestation of morally superior tolerance and understanding. As usual the European middle and lower classes had little influence over this matter and resented the imposition of this invasion. This conflict has led to Muslim terrorism, a return to warfare in Europe which the new policies were supposed to have banished.

Once again we can see that history repeats itself. A dying Roman Empire imported Germanic barbarians to solve its economic and military problems. When additional waves of these barbarians invaded the empire, there was no one left able or willing to defend it. It took Europe a thousand years to recover from the fall of Rome. The current situation may be the beginning of a similar outcome.

1 of 1 people found the following review helpful.
Quo vadis Europe?
By Martin Schweiger
Do you want to better understand the European Union and its fate?

Can you explain in short words why Germany wants to have Greece remaining in the EU and the EUR, whatever it costs?

If you want comprehensive answers to all these questions and more, then this is a book for you: "Flashpoints: The Emerging Crisis in Europe" by George Friedman.

Friedman's objectives

Friedman sets out the following questions that he wanted to answer with his book:

How did Europe achieve global domination, politically, militarily, economically, and intellectually?
What was the flaw in Europe that caused it to throw away this domination between 1914 and 1945? and
Is the period of peace that followed 1945 what the future of Europe will look like?
The last question is the most important one for Friedman.

His answer - in short - is: "No, it is not very likely that there will be continued peace throughout Europe".

What is so special with this book?

Friedman covered the big picture by providing detailed support, country by country. At the same time he lays open his working techniques which made him one of the very few internationally recognized geopoliticians.

George Friedman also reveals a lot of himself. He is letting the reader into his life, he tells the exciting story of his family's escape from persecution in WW II Hungary. And his starting point is impressive. He was born in Hungary, escaped with his family to the USA, and then travelled almost all European and close-European countries that he is writing about in his book.

This obviously shaped him to become someone who comes close to a world citizen, although he is usually putting the USA in the first place. I would not call this "arrogant" but one can throughout the entire book see that Friedman sees the USA to be the successor of Europe's domination of the world. And this is what this book has in common with most other books in the area of geopolitics, the USA are take as the center of the geopolitical universe and everything else follows from there.

Anything missing in the book?

If Friedman completely left out one significant point in his book then it is the future of manufacturing and its implication on geopolitics. Friedman emphasizes several times on international sea trade and the importance of protecting an empire's sea trade (namely the one of the USA) with a navy, but he does not recognize that the future of 3D printing and rapid machining will bring more decentralized manufacture and less international logistics. It is yet to be seen if the USA will be able to continue in the future maintaining a navy that can invade any place of the world within 24 hours.

And, of course, the Brexit is not captured in Friedman's book because this event is too young. I got the second edition of November 2015, which has updates about the ongoing refugee invasion, and Friedman already has somewhat anticipated the Brexit in chapter 15 of his book. But he qualifies this view with the following statement:
"The Europeans see the British as being different from them. The Americans see the British as different from themselves as well. The British see themselves as both unique and needing to have a foot in each camp."

George Friedman's professional background

George Friedman is the founder and chairman of a commercial company that specializes in geopolitical forecasting. Before that he was the chairman of the global intelligence company Stratfor, which he founded back in 1996. This explains the style of the present book, George Friedman is surely a seasoned expert in geopolitics.

Important ideas to remember

According to Friedman, Germany - and not France - plays a central role in Europe. One of his main points is that the EU created an only temporary abatement of Europe's core problems, which are nationalism and power - in particular German power. According to him, we are now in a period where that abatement is in the process of failing.

Friedman summarizes the role of the USA as follows, which is probably true but certainly diffiult to swallow for some:

"After the war, the United States became the first power to control all the world's oceans. It had expelled the Japanese from the Pacific - and the British and the French as well. It now dominated the North Atlantic, and through NATO, what was left of the Royal Navy was, in part at least, under American command. It was a maritime empire, and the British no longer controlled the sea lanes."

This is only one example for Friedman's mercilessly straight approach in his book. He presents facts in order to back up his theories and ideas, regardless of whether these facts hurt or not.

Here is one more merciless slap, right in the face of one-world order supporters:

"... the European Union ... is crumbling. There are four European Unions. There are the German states (Germany and Austria), the rest of northern Europe, the Mediterranean states, and the states in the borderland. The latter face the retaking of their old borderlands by Russia. The Mediterranean Europeans face massive unemployment experienced by Americans in the Great Depression. The northern European states are doing better but none are doing as well as the Germans."

Being of German origin myself, I can say that this book is not a bad read at all, but I may be biased ...

Key facts of this book

This book is so much filled with a large variety of facts that it is difficult to select which facts are the most important ones.

What was certainly new for me was the fact that the British - under tremendous war pressure from Germany after the fall of France - agreed to take 50 old destroyers from the USA, in return of a 99-year lease of land and bases, including the eastern Bahamas, the southern coast of Jamaica, St. Lucia, western Trinidad, Antigua, parts of British Guiana and basing rights in Bermuda and Newfoundland.

Letting the Greeks off the EU hook would not hurt Germany or the EU at all, as Greece is only 2 percent of Europe's total economy. But it would set a precedent that would endanger the entire European project. And this cannot be as - this is an important fact - half of Germany's exports goes to other EU countries, and exports make half of Germany's total GDP. And this with Germany being the world's third largest single exporting nation. This is unique within the EU. So what is good for Germany may not be good for the rest of the EU and vice versa.

Conclusion

In very short words, what I took from Friedman's book is this: if one has to decide on expanding his business into Europe, then Germany, Austria and Switzerland are surely top tier candidates, followed by the nordic countries. The UK - and with it the Netherlands - are playing in a different but still very attractive league. The remainder of Europe should be taken with a pinch of salt, to put it diplomatically. And don't bet the farm on that there will not be a war in Europe again, especially along the Russian border.

Whether you like these ideas or agree with them or not, this book is a must read if you are interested in Europe's future.

6 of 6 people found the following review helpful.
superb
By BookHawk
Sophisticated analysis of the history and dynamics underlying current upheavals within Europe and conflict with Russia. Well written and accessible. Required reading for knowledgeable Americans seeking the context that current political discourse seems unable to provide. Bravo George

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English Fiction of the Victorian Period (Longman Literature In English Series), by Michael Wheeler

Professor Wheeler's widely-acclaimed survey of the nineteenth-century fiction covers both the major writers and their works and encompasses the genres and "minor" fiction of the period. This excellent introduction and reference source has been revised for this second edition to include new material on lesser-known writers and a comprehensively updated bibliography.

  • Published on: 2015-02-05
  • Original language: English
  • Number of items: 1
  • Dimensions: 8.70" h x .90" w x 5.80" l, .0 pounds
  • Binding: Hardcover
  • 312 pages

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